地鐵車輛與供電系統維修策略優(yōu)化及預測技術

第1 章 緒論 ··········································································.001
1.1 軌道交通維修策略優(yōu)化和預測現狀 ···································.002
1.1.1 維修的發(fā)展現狀 ···················································.002
1.1.2 預測性維修的優(yōu)化目標 ··········································.009
1.1.3 車輛維修現狀 ······················································.014
1.1.4 剩余壽命預測發(fā)展現狀 ··········································.017
1.1.5 備品備件需求預測概述 ··········································.022
1.2 本書的主要內容 ····························································.028
參考文獻 ···········································································.029
第2 章 車門系統可靠性分析與維修策略優(yōu)化 ································.037
2.1 離散時間馬爾可夫過程 ···················································.037
2.2 通用生成函數法 ····························································.040
2.2.1 通用生成函數法的基本原理 ····································.040
2.2.2 復雜系統的通用生成函數技術 ·································.041
2.3 可靠性模型及維修周期優(yōu)化 ·············································.045
2.3.1 通用生成函數法可靠性指標 ····································.045
2.3.2 系統可靠性建模概述 ·············································.046
2.3.3 維修周期優(yōu)化模型 ················································.047
2.4 車門系統可靠性建模與維修策略優(yōu)化 ································.048
2.4.1 車門系統可靠性建模 ·············································.048
2.4.2 車門系統的可靠性指標計算 ····································.055
2.4.3 車門系統維修策略優(yōu)化 ··········································.056
2.5 本章小節(jié) ·····································································.058
參考文獻 ···········································································.058
第3 章 基于Phase-type（PH）分布的系統可靠性分析 ··················.060
3.1 PH 分布的基本概念 ······················································.060
3.1.1 PH 分布的定義 ····················································.060
3.1.2 PH 分布的性質 ····················································.062
3.1.3 PH 分布的可靠性指標 ···········································.064
3.2 基于PH 分布的串并聯系統可靠性分析 ······························.065
3.2.1 串聯系統 ····························································.065
3.2.2 并聯系統 ····························································.067
3.3 牽引系統案例分析 ························································.071
3.3.1 系統描述 ····························································.071
3.3.2 模型分析與建立 ···················································.072
3.3.3 系統可靠性指標的計算 ··········································.074
3.4 制動系統案例分析 ························································.075
3.4.1 系統描述 ····························································.075
3.4.2 模型分析與建立 ···················································.077
3.4.3 系統可靠性指標的計算 ··········································.080
3.4.4 可靠性與維修策略對比分析 ····································.081
3.5 車門系統案例分析 ························································.082
3.5.1 系統描述 ····························································.082
3.5.2 模型分析與建立 ···················································.083
3.5.3 系統可靠性指標的計算 ··········································.086
3.5.4 可靠性與維修策略對比分析 ····································.087
3.6 本章小結 ····································································.088
參考文獻 ···········································································.088
第4 章 基于沖擊理論的維修策略優(yōu)化 ··········································.090
4.1 沖擊理論概述 ······························································.090
4.1.1 故障機理分析 ······················································.090
4.1.2 基于Poisson 沖擊流的累積損傷模型 ·························.093
4.2 基于沖擊理論的組合維修概率模型 ···································.095
4.2.1 輪對磨耗及維修效果分析 ·······································.095
4.2.2 維修策略描述 ······················································.097
4.2.3 組合維修概率模型 ················································.099
4.3 故障風險及組合策略優(yōu)化模型 ··········································.108
4.3.1 輪緣厚度超限故障風險 ··········································.108
4.3.2 組合維修策略優(yōu)化模型 ··········································.110
4.4 案例分析 ·····································································.111
4.5 本章小結 ·····································································.118
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