跨越發(fā)展的陷阱：推進經濟中高速增長的突破性改革方案

1扭轉經濟增速下行的框架性概述/ 00
1.1實體經濟的休養(yǎng)生息/ 00
1.1.1降低企業(yè)成本必須減稅降費/ 00
1.1.2推進降低成本的配套性體制改革/ 00
1.2產權改革為重，啟動J型增長/ 00
1.3三方面基礎性的體制改革/ 00
1.4盤活存量要素和資源的體制改革/ 0
1.4.1盤活城鄉(xiāng)間要素和資源存量的體制改革/ 0
1.4.2盤活國有經濟要素和資源存量的體制改革/ 0
1.4.3盤活創(chuàng)新要素和資源存量的體制改革/ 0
1.5拓寬增長來源領域的開放性體制改革/ 0
1.5.1一些被管制領域的體制改革/ 0
1.5.2拓展新增長領域的體制改革/ 0
1.5.3放開社會事業(yè)領域的體制改革/ 0
1.6圍繞經濟中高速增長布局對外經濟開放/ 0
1.6.1減少對外漏損與出口替代戰(zhàn)略/ 0
1.6.2“一帶一路”思路與戰(zhàn)略的補充與完善/ 0
2經濟增長速度下行的三方面內在原因/ 0
2.1人口收縮老化與經濟格局變化/ 0
2.1.1“人口坑”對經濟增長的20年影響定律/ 0
2.1.2增長乏力：不能市民化的城市化/ 0
2.1.3經濟發(fā)展的格局發(fā)生了重大的轉折/ 0
2.2企業(yè)高成本重創(chuàng)實體經濟/ 0
2.2.1政府銀行國企GDP分配比例的上升/ 0
2.2.2城鄉(xiāng)居民和民營實體經濟所分配的GDP/ 0
2.2.3居民消費能力趨弱/ 0
2.2.4擠壓利潤和高債務迫使投資增速下行/ 0
2.2.5經濟增長下行的GDP擠壓力流程/ 0
2.3國民經濟流量的對外漏損/ 0
2.3.1服務貿易逆差對經濟增長的影響/ 0
2.3.2企業(yè)家資金轉移的增長推動力漏損/ 0
3經濟增速下行風險及其扭轉的優(yōu)勢/ 0
3.1未來中國發(fā)展面臨的一些風險/ 0
3.1.1經濟增速長期下行和低位徘徊/ 0
3.1.2改革提振速度慢于經濟增速下行的惡化/ 0
3.1.3金融和經濟危機可能由高杠桿率引發(fā)/ 0
3.1.4稅費供養(yǎng)失衡與溫水煮青蛙的可能性/ 0
3.1.5養(yǎng)老金缺口與民粹化導致經濟社會“希臘化”/ 0
3.2中美印之間未來基于人口的競爭/ 0
3.2.1中美印人口結構對比/ 0
3.2.2中美印未來人口數量和經濟走勢預測/ 0
3.2.3中美印未來GDP總量和均值預測/ 0
3.3中國經濟增速的優(yōu)勢與潛力/
3.3.1睿智勤勞儲蓄創(chuàng)業(yè)的中華民族/
3.3.2經濟增速有堅實的基礎/
3.3.3大國規(guī)模經濟優(yōu)勢/
4經濟增長的歷史回顧與大勢預判/
4.1改革開放以來三次S型經濟增長/
4.1.1改革開啟經濟起飛的首個S型增長階段/
4.1.2改革開放深化推進第二個S型增長階段/
4.1.3加入WTO促改革形成第三輪S型增長/
4.2溫故和判斷及把握關系/
4.2.1三次經濟增速上行和下行的經驗和啟示/
4.2.2五種疊加壓力可能造成經濟增速長期下行的格局/
4.2.3診斷和治療經濟增速下行的大體思路/
5實體經濟降成本政策及其配套改革/
5.1實施綜合降低成本的經濟政策/
5.1.1擴張性政策對人口原因性衰退調節(jié)的失效/
5.1.2經濟高成本需要供給學派政策調降/
5.1.3供給經濟政策需要凱恩斯工具相配合/
5.2降成本必須推進的體制改革/
5.2.1金融體制方面的改革/
5.2.2運輸、能源和土地降成本的體制改革/
5.2.3降低企業(yè)成本與稅費供養(yǎng)體制改革/
6經濟增長：突破性和基礎動能性體制改革/
6.1突破性改革啟動新一輪J型增長/
6.2長遠期經濟增長基礎動能性體制改革/
6.2.1創(chuàng)業(yè)就業(yè)體制改革/
6.2.2轉變觀念和推進生育體制改革/
7經濟增長：改革體制與盤活存量/
7.1城鄉(xiāng)間要素和資源流動的體制改革/
7.1.1加速市民化的體制改革/
7.1.2農村土地使用財產權制度的改革/
7.2國企改革與促進經濟增長/
7.2.1低效率國有經濟與改革的緊迫性/
7.2.2體制成本和集中風險及國有領域選擇/
7.2.3切實推進國有企業(yè)的體制改革/
7.3盤活創(chuàng)新領域要素和資源的改革/
7.3.1科技創(chuàng)新要素和資源利用的問題/
7.3.2盤活科技創(chuàng)新存量的體制改革/
8開放和拓展經濟增長領域的體制改革/
8.1服務業(yè)體制改革及領域的開放/
8.1.1服務業(yè)發(fā)展存在的體制問題/
8.1.2服務業(yè)體制的分類改革和開放/
8.2社會事業(yè)領域向民間放開/
8.2.1目前發(fā)展民間社會組織的問題/
8.2.2拓寬社會事業(yè)領域的幾個重大關系/
8.2.3發(fā)展和壯大民間社會組織層次/
8.3拓展增長的空間資源環(huán)境等新領域/
8.3.1通用航空領域體制改革和開放/
8.3.2土地淡水造林生態(tài)領域的開放/
8.3.3將環(huán)境保護和治理轉變?yōu)閯?chuàng)造GDP的產業(yè)/
8.3.4推進PPP體制改革吸引民間投資/
9促進經濟增長與對外經濟開放/
9.1國內外形勢變化與對外開放的轉折/
9.1.1基于國內經濟形勢變化的對外開放調整/
9.1.2國際形勢變化與中國開放戰(zhàn)略的調整/
9.2中國經濟開放的優(yōu)勢和面臨的挑戰(zhàn)/
9.2.1對外經濟開放的優(yōu)勢不容置疑/
9.2.2中國“走出去”面臨的風險和自身的不足/
9.2.3特朗普時代：中國的不確定性、風險和機遇/
9.3未來對外開放戰(zhàn)略的思路和組合/
9.3.1構建對外經濟開放宏微觀調節(jié)機制/
9.3.2產業(yè)升級與出口替代/
9.3.3投資、資金和進出口流入與流出平衡/
9.3.4產能轉移、平衡推進和國內關聯(lián)/
9.3.5“走出去”的方式和體制的轉型/
9.3.6特朗普時代：中國堅持經濟全球化/
9.3.7國內能源自主與淡水平衡/
后記/
Chapter 1The Framework Overview of Reversing The Slowdown of
Economic Growth/ 00
1.1Recuperation of the Real Economy/ 00
1.1.1Tax-cut and Fee Reduction Is Necessary for
Lowering Enterprises Cost/ 00
1.1.2The Supporting Ttructural Rreform of Promoting
Cost Reduction/ 00
1.2Property Reform for Rebooting the J-curve Growth/ 00
1.3Basic Institutional Reform in Three Dimensions/ 00
1.4Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Elements
and Resources/ 0
1.4.1Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks between Urban
and Rural Regions/ 0
1.4.2Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of State-owned
Economic Elements and Resources/ 0
1.4.3Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Innovational
Elements and Resources/ 0
1.5Field Opening Institutional Reforms for Broadening
the Sources of Growth/ 0
1.5.1Institutional Reforms for Opening up A Few Restrained Fields/ 0
1.5.2Institutional Reforms for Broadening New Ares for Growth/ 0
1.5.3Institutional Reforms for Deregulation in Fields of Social
Undertaking/ 0
1.6Layout of Opening Strategy surrounding
Medium High-Speed Growth/ 0
1.6.1Strategy for Reducing Leakage and Export Substitution/ 0
1.6.2Thoughts, Complements and Perfections about “the Belt
and Road Initiatives”/ 0
Contents
Chapter 2Three Underlying Reasons of the Slowing
Down Economic Growth Rate/ 0
2.1Population Aging and Changes of Economic Pattern/ 0
2.1.1Theorem of 20-year Delay Effect of Population Pit
over Economic Growth / 0
2.1.2Sluggish Growth: Urbanization Excluding Citizenization/ 0
2.1.3Major Transition in Layout of Economic Development/ 0
2.2High Costs on Enterprises Hit the Real Economy/ 0
2.2.1Increasing Share of GDP by Government, Banks and
State-owned Enterprises/ 0
2.2.2Share of GDP Goes to Urban & Rural Citizens and Private
Real Economy/ 0
2.2.3Weakening Household Consumption Capacity/ 0
2.2.4Shrinking Profit and High Debt that Causing
Investment Slowdown/ 0
2.2.5GDPs Crowding out Process of Economic Downturn/ 0
2.3Outward Leakage of National Economic Flow/ 0
2.3.1Service Trade Deficit Impacting Economic Growth/ 0
2.3.2Growing Capital Outward Transfer by Entrepreneurs Causing
Economic Impetus Leakage/ 0
Chapter 3Risks of Economic Slowdown and the Advantages
for Reversion/ 0
3.1Risks for China's Development in Future/ 0
3.1.1Long-term Economic Downturn and Fluctuation
at Low Level/ 0
3.1.2Inspiration from Reform Slower than Economic Deterioration/ 0
3.1.3Financial and Economic Crises Caused by High Leverage/ 0
3.1.4Imbalance Support of Taxes & Fees and Possibilities of
“Boiling Frog” Effect/ 0
3.1.5Pension Deficit and Populist May Lead to Situation
Similar as “Greeces Disease”/ 0
3.2Competitions Samong China, the United States and India
Based on Population in Future/ 0
3.2.1Population Structure Comparison among China,
America and India/ 0
3.2.2Population Predictions and Economic Trends of China,
America and India/ 0
3.2.3Total GDP and Average Amount Prediction of China,
America and India/ 0
3.3Advantages and Potential of China's Economic Growth/ 0
3.3.1Wise, Hardworking Chinese Nation with Savings
and Entrepreneurship/ 0
3.3.2Solid Foundation of Economic Growth/
3.3.3Advantage of Scale Economy for A Great Power/